Gartner: Device Shipments Break 2.4B Units In 2014, Tablets To Overtake PC Sales In 2015

The gradual decline of the PC industry, spurred on by the rapid rise of mobile computing, continues apace. Today the analysts at Gartner have published their latest forecasts for global PC, tablet, “ultramobile” and mobile phone shipments: they are set to break 2.4 billion units, and nearly 88% of that number will be attributable to mobile phones and tablets — specifically devices built on Google’s Android operating system, which on their own will account for nearly 1.

2 billion devices.

That 2.4 billion figure is up 4.2% on 2013.

But while many argue that tablets will become “the new PC,” we’re not yet at the point where tablets are outnumbering PC sales on their own.

There will be 256 million units of devices like Apple’s iPad, Samsung’s Galaxy Tab and the Kindle Fire to be shipped this year versus 308 million PCs (these include “traditional” models, defined as netbooks and desktop devices, and “premium” ultramobiles, laptop/tablet hybrids like the Lenovo Yoga. Gartner predicts the tipping point in favor of tablets will happen in 2015, when there will be nearly 321 million tablets shipped, versus close to 317 million PCs.

Table 1

Worldwide Device Shipments by Segment (Thousands of Units)

Device Type	2013	2014	2015
Traditonal PCs (Desk-Based and Notebook)	296,131	276,221	261,657
Ultramobiles, Premium	21,517	32,251	55,032
PC Market Total	317,648	308,472	316,689
Tablets	206,807	256,308	320,964
Mobile Phones	1,806,964	1,862,766	1,946,456
Other Ultramobiles (Hybrid and Clamshell)	2,981	5,381	7,645
Total	2,334,400	2,432,927	2,591,753

Source: Gartner (June 2014)

Interestingly, while sales of PCs are inevitably declining, as they have been for years, 2014 is seeing something of a slowdown in that trend. As Microsoft forced the hand of many people to move off Windows XP by dropping support as it pushes hard on new versions of its operating system (and new devices to run it), that’s apparently had an effect.

After declining 9.5 per cent in 2013, the global PC market (desk-based, notebook and premium ultramobile) is on pace to contract only 2.9 per cent in 2014, something that Gartner research directly Ranjit Atwal refers to as a “relative revival.” (You can almost imagine the weak smile he might make when he says it, too.)

“Business upgrades from Windows XP and the general business replacement cycle will lessen the downward trend, especially in Western Europe,” he writes. “This year, we anticipate nearly 60 million professional PC replacements in mature markets.” But that won’t be a lasting trend: as you can see in the table above, every other category of device will grow in the next year, while PCs by 2015 will be back below 2013 levels.

Worldwide Device Shipments by Operating System (Thousands of Units)

Operating System	2013	2014	2015
Android	898,944	1,168,282	1,370,893
Windows	326,060	333,419	373,694
iOS/Mac OS	236,200	271,115	301,349
Others	873,195	660,112	545,817
Total	2,334,400	2,432,927	2,591,753

Shipments include mobile phones, ultramobiles (including tablets) and PCs

Source: Gartner (June 2014)

More to come.